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I think Iran is genuinely unpredictable especially if the US govt has killed a lot of the uninspiring oldfags in charge. As BAP said the oldfags in charge don't have the spirit of Jihad and were only going for nukes to pearlclutch power forever. If the oldfags are dead negotiating with Iran might be hard and the Israelis will be triply concerned with young jihadists rising to power there, which may lead to further escalation. it seems at the moment the Israelis have total control over Donald Trump's foreign policy here.
Iran war predictions in wake of midtermsRead moreThis is a test post but also my initial take:
None of Trump's military options are particularly appetizing and Iran's current offer to end hostilities (punting on nukes, hormuz control, no proxy support restrictions) will not be palatable to the incoming Dem Congress or any future adults-in-the-room administration.
At a minimum, for Congress to do a performative "end the war" appropriations bill, we will need to obtain a toothier JCPOA and concessions on Iran proxies (the original issue that caused Israel to release the Clinton and Podesta emails), because there are too many reasons for even the most staunchly anti-Israel intelligence community member (the kind of guy who tells the stories about seeing palestinians being brutalized at Israeli checkpoints) to want Iran neutered:
- Non-proliferation is an article of faith for them
- The Nezam have engaged in so much violent and non-violent subversion in Europe and the Near East, including the killing of several American citizens, that we need to neutralize them (if not exact revenge)
- The logic of great power competition w/ Russia and China
- Institutional inertia
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>>>2cb:1
linking this post. It should be much easier to link personal page posts on the forum. Like there should be a button to do it.Iran war predictions in wake of midtermsRead moreThis is a test post but also my initial take:
None of Trump's military options are particularly appetizing and Iran's current offer to end hostilities (punting on nukes, hormuz control, no proxy support restrictions) will not be palatable to the incoming Dem Congress or any future adults-in-the-room administration.
At a minimum, for Congress to do a performative "end the war" appropriations bill, we will need to obtain a toothier JCPOA and concessions on Iran proxies (the original issue that caused Israel to release the Clinton and Podesta emails), because there are too many reasons for even the most staunchly anti-Israel intelligence community member (the kind of guy who tells the stories about seeing palestinians being brutalized at Israeli checkpoints) to want Iran neutered:
- Non-proliferation is an article of faith for them
- The Nezam have engaged in so much violent and non-violent subversion in Europe and the Near East, including the killing of several American citizens, that we need to neutralize them (if not exact revenge)
- The logic of great power competition w/ Russia and China
- Institutional inertia