Damn. I #Neverthoughtaboutitthatway
This is a test post but also my initial take:
None of Trump's military options are particularly appetizing and Iran's current offer to end hostilities (punting on nukes, hormuz control, no proxy support restrictions) will not be palatable to the incoming Dem Congress or any future adults-in-the-room administration.
At a minimum, for Congress to do a performative "end the war" appropriations bill, we will need to obtain a toothier JCPOA and concessions on Iran proxies (the original issue that caused Israel to release the Clinton and Podesta emails), because there are too many reasons for even the most staunchly anti-Israel intelligence community member (the kind of guy who tells the stories about seeing palestinians being brutalized at Israeli checkpoints) to want Iran neutered:
- Non-proliferation is an article of faith for them
- The Nezam have engaged in so much violent and non-violent subversion in Europe and the Near East, including the killing of several American citizens, that we need to neutralize them (if not exact revenge)
- The logic of great power competition w/ Russia and China
- Institutional inertia